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TradingView GbpJpy Buy on H1

TradingView GbpJpy Buy on H1

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4th Week 2019 Market Expectations on SDPAFX.com

4th Week 2019 Market Expectations on SDPAFX.com

Good morning traders, it’s monday again and I want to share with you my analysis for this week. Lts begin with the DJI30. Price pullbacked into the ema100 zone on daily and according to the last drop on HTF this seems like the best supply to sell. We are on daily so the timing should take a little bit more time, means do not short it imidiately from M5.

Next one is EurUsd. For me this is long on daily. Made a nice pullback into daily demand 1,1390 and my expectations are for long signal and new HTF swing high above 1,1600.

GbpUsd was a bit tricky last week, but I think the trend on HTF is still on bear side. Daily engulfing on ema100 is a pretty good reason why take a look for short signals. Again the same like DJI. We are on daily supply so don’t expect imidiately short from M5. It needs time.

GbpJpy made new structure high. For me this pair will be hard to trade this week. Price should short to 140,30 and than long, but it can reverse long everywhere on the way to this level. So be carefull and keep your SL tight.

Last one for me is the Kiwi – NzdUsd which for me is in perfect situation. I made huge analysis through all the pairs and my decision is to buy the kiwi from 0,6720 and expect new high above 0,6850. This pair was rising last weeks and the bullish strategy will be the winning one here.

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Is there any difference between trading bias and prediction?

Is there any difference between trading bias and prediction?

A prediction is defined as a forecasting statement on how things will be in the future. Making a prediction means that you are expecting a certain outcome. In forex trading, saying that a currency pair will trade at a particular price at a specified point in time is an example of a prediction.

Meanwhile, a bias refers to an inclination or outlook. Having a bias means you believe that a particular kind of behavior is more likely to occur than other alternatives. In trading, being bullish or bearish on a currency is a form of bias.

Trading-predictions as you probably noticed, the key difference between predictions and biases in trading is that the latter is open for confirmation or negation from the markets. As a trader, you must develop biases instead of simply making many predictions.

It is normal to have biases on currencies, especially when technical and fundamental factors support your outlook. It is important, however, to discern if market behavior confirms your biases before acting on it by taking a trade. “If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect

“If you believe it likely to have a definite bullish or bearish effect marketwise, do not back your judgment until the action of the market itself confirms your opinion,” says Mark Douglas in The Disciplined Trader.

“Even if you develop the correct bias about the direction of the market, you still must possess the trading skills to capture those moves,” writes Mike Bellafiore in his book One Good Trade. “Wasting your time on predictions is energy and time lost for what will truly make all the difference, skill development.”

Having a blind prediction on how a currency will trade without taking into consideration market behavior or changes in the market environment could be bad for one’s trading.

If you keep trying to prove your forecast is correct but the market disagrees, you’re likely to end up with one loss after another. Economist John Maynard Keynes couldn’t have put it better: “The markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

At the end of the day, you have to remember that the market is boss. It couldn’t care less about where you think price will go. The market will go where it pleases.

A common mistake newbie traders make is believing that successful forex trading is about making predictions and that they can affect the markets with their opinions or trades.

Take for instance the recent rally in USD/JPY. Some traders insisted that the pair should be trading much lower after Trump won the U.S. Presidential elections so they kept shorting the pair, ignoring oversold signals, and even upside breakouts from key resistance levels.

Because of their inability to recognize and act on the change in market environment, they not only lost their trades, but they also missed opportunities to make pips on the pair’s move up.

As a forex trader, you must always process information with an open mind and remain flexible. You risk missing both intraday moves and long-term trends if you choose to only see the market signals that support your own predictions.

“Trade what the market is doing, not what you’d like it to do in your nihilistic fantasies,” advises renowned trading psychologist Dr. Brett Steenbarger.

Remember that the name of the business is trading, not predicting. At the end of the day, your trading results won’t reflect your predictions but your ability to adapt to the markets and capitalize on price action.

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